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08/3/2017 1:38 pm  #1


THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

 Realistically The race for automatic promotion looks like a 3 horse race between The Terrors, Dorking Wanderers and Greenwich Borough. As it stands today,  mathematically there are 9 teams still in the race for being champions.  The first 8 in the league , plus South Park who are 12th.

If  my maths are correct , and the Terrors maintain their goal difference advantage, they only need to  win 6 of their last 8 games to become champions.  On today's standings, and all teams winning their matches (Although lots of the 9 clubs involved have to  play each other), Tooting need to reach 107 points to achieve their target of beating Dorking to  automatic promotion. - if they reach 102 points Greenwich and South Park will be eliminated - 96 points  Casuals eliminated - 94 points Hastings and Lewes  eliminated - 93 Hythe Town eliminated - 91 Carshalton Eliminated.
Please excuse layout of league positions
                                                                                             Pld     pts
Tooting and Mitcham Utd                                                    38      89
Dorking Wanderers                                                             38      83
Greenwich Borough                                                            36      72
Corinthian Casuals                                                              37     69
Hastings United                                                                   37     67
Carshalton Athletic                                                              38     67
Lewes                                                                                  37     67
Hythe Town                                                                        37     67
South Park                                                                          30     54
 
With 4 very difficult away  games, and 4 potentially difficult home games, the task is not straight forward. The recent record winning run will have to  extended, but hopefully the other clubs in contention will be finding it very difficult as well. The scramble for the play-off places will be intriguing.

Terrors Fixtures
11/3/17  Hastings (a)
18/3/17  Walton Casuals  (h)
25/3/17  Horsham (a)
  1/4/17  South Park (h)
  8/4/17  Three Bridges (h)
15/4/17  Ramsgate (a)
17/4/17  Carshalton (h)
22/4/17  Dorking (a)
 

 

08/3/2017 6:10 pm  #2


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Crikey.....do we have any experts on this sort of thing on here?  I've tried to be clever with a spreadsheet  and ended up tying myself in knots.....

Right, I've pieced together a 'what's the maximum someone can get' if one team were to win all of their games.....

T&M: 113
Dorking: 107
Greenwich: 102
Corinthian-Casuals: 96
Hastings: 94
Carshalton: 91
Lewes: 94
Hythe: 93
South Park: 102

But as you say Mike, this isn't very clear cut as there is a fair bit of those teams playing each other!  The breakdown for that one is:

T&M: 4 games against other teams in that group
Dorking: 3 games " " "
Greenwich: 3 games " " "
Corinthian-Casuals: 4 games " " "
Hastings: 4 games " " "
Carshalton: 3 games " " "
Lewes: 5 games " " "
Hythe: 4 games " " "
South Park: 6 games " " "

The most in one day taking place this Saturday (Hastings v T&M, Greenwich v Corinthian-Casuals, Hythe v Carshalton), so could be a few changes on the table there.  So, three wins would see us definitely finish above Corinthian-Casuals, Hastings, Carshalton, Lewes and Hythe.  Five wins would see us definitely finish above Greenwich and South Park.  But I do get the logic Mike, six wins (making 18 points) would take us to 107 points which is the most Dorking could get (and our goal difference).  As said before those, these maths are not very clear cut with the business of those nine teams playing each other.....I reckon in about four games time this should be a bit easier to gauge.   




 


1956/1957 season to 2016/2017 season - 60 years of T&M in the Isthmian League, and League Champions
 

08/3/2017 6:18 pm  #3


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

If we keep winning its all academic.  

But looking at Dorking's fixtures, they've got 4 of the next 7 away from home.  They've only won 2 of the last 7 away games.  Say they win 6 of the next 7 (worst case), we could afford to lose 4 of our 7 (again worst case) and still win it with victory at Dorking on the last day. 

There's still a lot of work to do - as Three Bridges showed last night - there are no easy games at this stage of the season.  But we definitely have the squad to cope.

 

 

08/3/2017 10:38 pm  #4


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

I hope we don't have too many superstitious supporters amongst us as we go for our thirteenth victory on the trot.  Is that really right that we haven't dropped a point in the league since Boxing Day?  That seems almost unbelievable.  I really believe that if we have a win at Hastings we'll almost be there - keep it going lads!

 

09/3/2017 9:07 am  #5


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Edgeoftheb ox wrote:

I hope we don't have too many superstitious supporters amongst us as we go for our thirteenth victory on the trot.

I think it's unlucky to be superstitious " Hold on "

Saturday's game is the day after I turn 42 so I'm hoping for a belated birthday present.
 

 

09/3/2017 10:14 am  #6


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Update to Maximum points position after last night's game. South Park have now slipped down one position after losing to Greenwich Borough.
T&M: 113
Dorking: 107
Greenwich: 102
South Park   99
Corinthian-Casuals: 96
Hastings: 94
Lewes      94
Hythe Town 93
Carshalton: 91
 

     Thread Starter
 

09/3/2017 11:11 am  #7


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Edgeoftheb ox wrote:

I hope we don't have too many superstitious supporters amongst us as we go for our thirteenth victory on the trot.  Is that really right that we haven't dropped a point in the league since Boxing Day?  That seems almost unbelievable.  I really believe that if we have a win at Hastings we'll almost be there - keep it going lads!

I'm having nightmare memories of 2007, when we went 31 (I think) after between winning at Hastings in January. Until we lost to them in the play-off final.

 

09/3/2017 11:18 am  #8


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

I think I make the remaining fixtures for the top 2 sides as follows:

Sat 11th March:
Hastings (5th) v TMUFC

Sat 18th March:
TMUFC v Walton Casuals (10th)
Sittingbourne (13th) v DWFC

Sat 25th March:
Horsham (14th) v TMUFC
DWFC v Walton Casuals (10th)

Tue 28th March:
DWFC v South Park (12th)

Sat 1st April:
TMUFC v South Park (12th)
Cray Wanderers (11th) v DWFC

Sat 8th April
TMUFC v Three Bridges (22nd)
Herne Bay (17th) v DWFC

Sat 15th April
Ramsgate (15th) v TMUFC
DWFC v Hythe Town (8th)

Mon 17th April
TMUFC v Carshalton (6th)
Guernsey (20th) v DWFC

Sat 22nd April
DWFC v TMUFC

 

09/3/2017 2:18 pm  #9


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Bog End Ultra wrote:

the day after I turn 42
 

Blimey, paper rounds aren't what they used to be.......


1956/1957 season to 2016/2017 season - 60 years of T&M in the Isthmian League, and League Champions
 

09/3/2017 5:49 pm  #10


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Of course we could win all our home games (12 pts) and draw all of our away games (4 pts) 16 pts + 89 pts = 105 pts
​And Dorking could win their 7 games (21pts) and draw against us on the last day (1 pt) 22pts + 83 pts = 105 pts, so it all comes down to goal difference.
OR
Win the next 6 games and hope that our goal difference is enough. lol

 

10/3/2017 12:11 pm  #11


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Mike M - You have a PM  


I started out with nothing and I've still got most of it left !
 

12/3/2017 9:25 pm  #12


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Well, 15 points in seven games is currently the target - with the keeping of the goal difference of course.  As stated elsewhere the playoffs are at least in our sights, with Carshalton, Hastings, Hythe and Lewes maximum potential points being below our current 92.  Not much more action within those nine teams discussed earlier until Saturday, three midweek games (South Park v Whyteleafe, Herne Bay v South Park and Molesey v Hythe Town) before the big numbersfest on Saturday       

Last edited by Plumpton (12/3/2017 9:28 pm)


1956/1957 season to 2016/2017 season - 60 years of T&M in the Isthmian League, and League Champions
 

13/3/2017 11:35 am  #13


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Since my first posting on this subject on 8th March, this weekend witnessed some major changes to the race for automatic  promotion. From the 9 clubs which were in contention, 4 have dropped out of the race.  The Terror strengthened their position with a dramatic win at Hastings, Greenwich Borough lost ground, and Dorking still remain the main threat to the Terrors hopes.

2012-13 season the Terrors were facing  a different race.....to avoid Relegation to the Combined Counties League!

As it stands today,  a target of   99 points is required to ensure a home game in the play-offs.  

Maximum Points Position after this weekend's games, with the  teams under  the  dotted  line being eliminated  from the race to the top.

 1. T &M: 113      (Current points 92)
2. Dorking: 107
3. Greenwich: 99
4. South Park   99
5. Corinthian-Casuals: 96
-------------------------------------------------
6. Hythe Town 91 
7. Hastings 91
8. Lewes      91
9. Carshalton 89
 
Key Mid-Week games this week are:-
 
Mon - South Park V's Whyteleafe
Wed - Herne Bay V's South Park.
 
Next Saturday more key games will be played, but I am sure there will be  excruciating  "Twists and Turns" before any team can be assured to  relax a little.
 
 For the Terrors:-
 
Keep Calm
 
and
 
Carry on the Great Form

 

Last edited by Mikem (13/3/2017 12:57 pm)

     Thread Starter
 

13/3/2017 12:00 pm  #14


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

I find it interesting that we have just clinched a play off spot, and yet there is no air of celebration.  If you go back just 10 weeks to the Boxing Day game at Carshalton where we were on the back of 3 consecutive defeats, 1-0 down in injury time and down to 10 men, I think we'd have all jumped at the guarantee of a top 5 finish.

But now it would be a sickener if we didn't win the league from this position.

 

13/3/2017 1:16 pm  #15


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

endofthelane wrote:

I find it interesting that we have just clinched a play off spot, and yet there is no air of celebration.

You are spot on of course, T&M have achieved a big milestone, with seven games to go, a position we could only dream of a few years ago.  I reckon at the min the business of being champions has overshadowed the play offs, there is much excitement/nerves about this crucial final run : )  But definitely, the playoff position, points and goal total is something to be very proud of indeed.


1956/1957 season to 2016/2017 season - 60 years of T&M in the Isthmian League, and League Champions
 

14/3/2017 11:36 am  #16


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Mikem wrote:

Maximum Points Position after this weekend's games, with the  teams under  the  dotted  line being eliminated  from the race to the top.

 1. T &M: 113      (Current points 92)
2. Dorking: 107
3. Greenwich: 99
4. South Park   99
5. Corinthian-Casuals: 96
 

South Park now neck and neck with Casuals - a defeat against Whyteleafe last night takes them down to a 96 maximum............

Let's see if that changes again tomorrow 
 


1956/1957 season to 2016/2017 season - 60 years of T&M in the Isthmian League, and League Champions
 

16/3/2017 12:26 am  #17


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

This post started on the 8th March, and  last  weekend's dramatic  results  impacted the whole outlook on the race for  the Automatic Promotion spot. Will this be another eventful weekend?  Also the scramble for the play-off positions are at stake  with at  least 2 or 3 spots still up for grabs.  

As it stands today, the Terrors recent record run as ensured at least a play-off position, and  99points will guarantee either Dorking or ourselves the advantageous  home draw at the knock out stage.

The Maximum points position  as at Wednesday 8th March where 9 teams were in contention for automatic promotion, as follows: -
1. T & M :113                                                                  
2.  Dorking 107
3.  Greenwich 102
4.  South Park 102
5.  Corinthian-Casuals 96
6.  Hastings  94
7.  Carshalton 91
8.  Lewes 94
9.  Hythe 93
 
8 days later the Maximum Points Position as at Thursday 16th March (current points are shown in brackets) are shown below. The teams under the dotted line have since been  eliminated from the automatic promotion race, but are in contention for  play-off positions.
 
1.  T  & M                      113 (92)
2.  Dorking                    107 (83)
3.  Greenwich                99  (75)
4. Corinthian-Casuals   96  (72)
5. * South Park              94  (58)
------------------------------------------------
6.  Hastings                     91 (67)
7.  Lewes                         91 (67)
8.  Carshalton                 89 (68)   
9.  Hythe Town              88 (67)
 
* South Park  still have 12 games to  play before the end of the season, will they even make the play-offs?
 
With only 5 weeks left to the end of the league season, the Terrors only have to  win 5 of their last 7 games, 4 at home and 3 away.  There are some potential mine fields on the way, but  concentration, belief and determination must prevail.  Although it will not be possible for Tooting to beat the record 114 points achieved by Folkestone, the record 128  goals scored by Peacehaven when they got promoted is doable.  With 7 games to  go we have a total of 113 goals,  at an average of2.89 goal per game. Keeping up this average would  give the Terrors another 20 goals! "Deal or No Deal?
 
 After flirting with relegation  to the Combined Counties League, and 60 years Since we were elected to  the Isthmian League , will the club be back where it started?
 
Key games this weekend are :-
Corinthian-Casuals   V's  Hastings United
Cray Wanderers        V's  South Park
Sittingbourne             V's  Dorking Wanderers
Whyteleafe                 V's  Greenwich Borough
 
Keep Calm
 
And
 
Carry on the Great Form
 

     Thread Starter
 

16/3/2017 2:13 am  #18


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

This is brilliant Mikem. Lets hope all goes well for the final push...

 

16/3/2017 6:55 pm  #19


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Tom Jelley is still at Hampton & Richmond

 

19/3/2017 2:19 am  #20


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Ok.....just to give me something to do after the late, late, late shift - and to save Mike M's fingers, here's the maximum available points (with the current in brackets) after Saturday 18th March.....

T&M: 113 (95)
Dorking: 107 (86)
Greenwich: 97 (76)
Below line teams which maximum figure is below T&M current points:
___________________________________________________________________
Corinthian-Casuals: 93 (72)
Carshalton: 89 (71)
Hastings: 91 (70)
Hythe: 86 (68)
Lewes: 91 (70)
South Park: 94 (61)

So the target as was before, but now 12 points within six games (providing the goal difference advantage is intact).........another splendid result today for T&M.


1956/1957 season to 2016/2017 season - 60 years of T&M in the Isthmian League, and League Champions
 

21/3/2017 12:25 am  #21


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Plumpton wrote:

T&M: 113 (95)
Dorking: 107 (86)
Greenwich: 97 (76)
Below line teams which maximum figure is below T&M current points:
___________________________________________________________________
Corinthian-Casuals: 93 (72)
Carshalton: 89 (71)
Hastings: 91 (70)
Hythe: 86 (68)
Lewes: 91 (70)
South Park: 94 (61)

And at 21/03/2017, the same stuff except for South Park - now with a potential max of 91 (current 61).
 


1956/1957 season to 2016/2017 season - 60 years of T&M in the Isthmian League, and League Champions
 

24/3/2017 9:28 am  #22


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Two weeks now since I started this thread, with  3 favourites  and 6 outsiders. The first weekend witnessed the fall of 4 clubs from the race, and last  weekend another 2 clubs were  eliminated.  The three favourites are now approaching the last bend and a few fences to  negotiate.  The Terrors only need another 3 points to  guarantee a minimum of a home draw in the play-offs .  Points on the board at this time of the season are crucial. Possible points are as follows, with actual points in brackets.

Tooting             113      (95)  
Dorking             107      (86)
Greenwich         97       (76)

The 3 teams in contention have some interesting  games this weekend, Will there be any significant game changers  from the following games:-

Dorking Wanderers     V's   Walton Casuals
Greenwich                    V 's   Lewes
Horsham                      V's    Tooting and Mitcham Utd.
 
Keep Calm 
And  
Carry on the Great Form

 

     Thread Starter
 

27/3/2017 10:32 am  #23


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

 Saturday's matches produced a significant game changer in the race for automatic promotion, with the Terrors defeat at Horsham after a record match winning run. With only 5 games remaining Tooting need  at least 4 wins to   guarantee the championship. Tooting will be severely tested in all 5 games as the Horsham match proved.
 
There are 2 vital games tomorrow evening when both Greenwich and Dorking play their game in hand over the Terrors:-
 
Dorking Wanderers  V's    South Park
 
Three Bridges           V's    Greenwich Borough
 
With the total points available, and currents points in shown in brackets, The only 3 championship contenders  are as follows:-
 
Tooting and Mitcham  Utd       110      (95)  
Dorking                                        107      (89)
Greenwich                                    97       (79)
 

     Thread Starter
 

27/3/2017 11:27 am  #24


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

Oo-er...real squeaky bum time.

 

27/3/2017 2:30 pm  #25


Re: THE RACE FOR AUTOMATIC PROMOTION

N n n n n n n n nervous !  


I started out with nothing and I've still got most of it left !
 

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