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Realistically The race for automatic promotion looks like a 3 horse race between The Terrors, Dorking Wanderers and Greenwich Borough. As it stands today, mathematically there are 9 teams still in the race for being champions. The first 8 in the league , plus South Park who are 12th.
If my maths are correct , and the Terrors maintain their goal difference advantage, they only need to win 6 of their last 8 games to become champions. On today's standings, and all teams winning their matches (Although lots of the 9 clubs involved have to play each other), Tooting need to reach 107 points to achieve their target of beating Dorking to automatic promotion. - if they reach 102 points Greenwich and South Park will be eliminated - 96 points Casuals eliminated - 94 points Hastings and Lewes eliminated - 93 Hythe Town eliminated - 91 Carshalton Eliminated.
Please excuse layout of league positions
Pld pts
Tooting and Mitcham Utd 38 89
Dorking Wanderers 38 83
Greenwich Borough 36 72
Corinthian Casuals 37 69
Hastings United 37 67
Carshalton Athletic 38 67
Lewes 37 67
Hythe Town 37 67
South Park 30 54
With 4 very difficult away games, and 4 potentially difficult home games, the task is not straight forward. The recent record winning run will have to extended, but hopefully the other clubs in contention will be finding it very difficult as well. The scramble for the play-off places will be intriguing.
Terrors Fixtures
11/3/17 Hastings (a)
18/3/17 Walton Casuals (h)
25/3/17 Horsham (a)
1/4/17 South Park (h)
8/4/17 Three Bridges (h)
15/4/17 Ramsgate (a)
17/4/17 Carshalton (h)
22/4/17 Dorking (a)
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Crikey.....do we have any experts on this sort of thing on here? I've tried to be clever with a spreadsheet and ended up tying myself in knots.....
Right, I've pieced together a 'what's the maximum someone can get' if one team were to win all of their games.....
T&M: 113
Dorking: 107
Greenwich: 102
Corinthian-Casuals: 96
Hastings: 94
Carshalton: 91
Lewes: 94
Hythe: 93
South Park: 102
But as you say Mike, this isn't very clear cut as there is a fair bit of those teams playing each other! The breakdown for that one is:
T&M: 4 games against other teams in that group
Dorking: 3 games " " "
Greenwich: 3 games " " "
Corinthian-Casuals: 4 games " " "
Hastings: 4 games " " "
Carshalton: 3 games " " "
Lewes: 5 games " " "
Hythe: 4 games " " "
South Park: 6 games " " "
The most in one day taking place this Saturday (Hastings v T&M, Greenwich v Corinthian-Casuals, Hythe v Carshalton), so could be a few changes on the table there. So, three wins would see us definitely finish above Corinthian-Casuals, Hastings, Carshalton, Lewes and Hythe. Five wins would see us definitely finish above Greenwich and South Park. But I do get the logic Mike, six wins (making 18 points) would take us to 107 points which is the most Dorking could get (and our goal difference). As said before those, these maths are not very clear cut with the business of those nine teams playing each other.....I reckon in about four games time this should be a bit easier to gauge.
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If we keep winning its all academic.
But looking at Dorking's fixtures, they've got 4 of the next 7 away from home. They've only won 2 of the last 7 away games. Say they win 6 of the next 7 (worst case), we could afford to lose 4 of our 7 (again worst case) and still win it with victory at Dorking on the last day.
There's still a lot of work to do - as Three Bridges showed last night - there are no easy games at this stage of the season. But we definitely have the squad to cope.
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I hope we don't have too many superstitious supporters amongst us as we go for our thirteenth victory on the trot. Is that really right that we haven't dropped a point in the league since Boxing Day? That seems almost unbelievable. I really believe that if we have a win at Hastings we'll almost be there - keep it going lads!
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Edgeoftheb ox wrote:
I hope we don't have too many superstitious supporters amongst us as we go for our thirteenth victory on the trot.
I think it's unlucky to be superstitious " Hold on "
Saturday's game is the day after I turn 42 so I'm hoping for a belated birthday present.
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Update to Maximum points position after last night's game. South Park have now slipped down one position after losing to Greenwich Borough.
T&M: 113
Dorking: 107
Greenwich: 102
South Park 99
Corinthian-Casuals: 96
Hastings: 94
Lewes 94
Hythe Town 93
Carshalton: 91
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Edgeoftheb ox wrote:
I hope we don't have too many superstitious supporters amongst us as we go for our thirteenth victory on the trot. Is that really right that we haven't dropped a point in the league since Boxing Day? That seems almost unbelievable. I really believe that if we have a win at Hastings we'll almost be there - keep it going lads!
I'm having nightmare memories of 2007, when we went 31 (I think) after between winning at Hastings in January. Until we lost to them in the play-off final.
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I think I make the remaining fixtures for the top 2 sides as follows:
Sat 11th March:
Hastings (5th) v TMUFC
Sat 18th March:
TMUFC v Walton Casuals (10th)
Sittingbourne (13th) v DWFC
Sat 25th March:
Horsham (14th) v TMUFC
DWFC v Walton Casuals (10th)
Tue 28th March:
DWFC v South Park (12th)
Sat 1st April:
TMUFC v South Park (12th)
Cray Wanderers (11th) v DWFC
Sat 8th April
TMUFC v Three Bridges (22nd)
Herne Bay (17th) v DWFC
Sat 15th April
Ramsgate (15th) v TMUFC
DWFC v Hythe Town (8th)
Mon 17th April
TMUFC v Carshalton (6th)
Guernsey (20th) v DWFC
Sat 22nd April
DWFC v TMUFC
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Bog End Ultra wrote:
the day after I turn 42
Blimey, paper rounds aren't what they used to be.......
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Of course we could win all our home games (12 pts) and draw all of our away games (4 pts) 16 pts + 89 pts = 105 pts
And Dorking could win their 7 games (21pts) and draw against us on the last day (1 pt) 22pts + 83 pts = 105 pts, so it all comes down to goal difference.
OR
Win the next 6 games and hope that our goal difference is enough. lol
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Mike M - You have a PM
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Well, 15 points in seven games is currently the target - with the keeping of the goal difference of course. As stated elsewhere the playoffs are at least in our sights, with Carshalton, Hastings, Hythe and Lewes maximum potential points being below our current 92. Not much more action within those nine teams discussed earlier until Saturday, three midweek games (South Park v Whyteleafe, Herne Bay v South Park and Molesey v Hythe Town) before the big numbersfest on Saturday
Last edited by Plumpton (12/3/2017 9:28 pm)
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Since my first posting on this subject on 8th March, this weekend witnessed some major changes to the race for automatic promotion. From the 9 clubs which were in contention, 4 have dropped out of the race. The Terror strengthened their position with a dramatic win at Hastings, Greenwich Borough lost ground, and Dorking still remain the main threat to the Terrors hopes.
2012-13 season the Terrors were facing a different race.....to avoid Relegation to the Combined Counties League!
As it stands today, a target of 99 points is required to ensure a home game in the play-offs.
Maximum Points Position after this weekend's games, with the teams under the dotted line being eliminated from the race to the top.
1. T &M: 113 (Current points 92)
2. Dorking: 107
3. Greenwich: 99
4. South Park 99
5. Corinthian-Casuals: 96
-------------------------------------------------
6. Hythe Town 91
7. Hastings 91
8. Lewes 91
9. Carshalton 89
Key Mid-Week games this week are:-
Mon - South Park V's Whyteleafe
Wed - Herne Bay V's South Park.
Next Saturday more key games will be played, but I am sure there will be excruciating "Twists and Turns" before any team can be assured to relax a little.
For the Terrors:-
Keep Calm
and
Carry on the Great Form
Last edited by Mikem (13/3/2017 12:57 pm)
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I find it interesting that we have just clinched a play off spot, and yet there is no air of celebration. If you go back just 10 weeks to the Boxing Day game at Carshalton where we were on the back of 3 consecutive defeats, 1-0 down in injury time and down to 10 men, I think we'd have all jumped at the guarantee of a top 5 finish.
But now it would be a sickener if we didn't win the league from this position.
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endofthelane wrote:
I find it interesting that we have just clinched a play off spot, and yet there is no air of celebration.
You are spot on of course, T&M have achieved a big milestone, with seven games to go, a position we could only dream of a few years ago. I reckon at the min the business of being champions has overshadowed the play offs, there is much excitement/nerves about this crucial final run : ) But definitely, the playoff position, points and goal total is something to be very proud of indeed.
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Mikem wrote:
Maximum Points Position after this weekend's games, with the teams under the dotted line being eliminated from the race to the top.
1. T &M: 113 (Current points 92)
2. Dorking: 107
3. Greenwich: 99
4. South Park 99
5. Corinthian-Casuals: 96
South Park now neck and neck with Casuals - a defeat against Whyteleafe last night takes them down to a 96 maximum............
Let's see if that changes again tomorrow
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This post started on the 8th March, and last weekend's dramatic results impacted the whole outlook on the race for the Automatic Promotion spot. Will this be another eventful weekend? Also the scramble for the play-off positions are at stake with at least 2 or 3 spots still up for grabs.
As it stands today, the Terrors recent record run as ensured at least a play-off position, and 99points will guarantee either Dorking or ourselves the advantageous home draw at the knock out stage.
The Maximum points position as at Wednesday 8th March where 9 teams were in contention for automatic promotion, as follows: -
1. T & M :113
2. Dorking 107
3. Greenwich 102
4. South Park 102
5. Corinthian-Casuals 96
6. Hastings 94
7. Carshalton 91
8. Lewes 94
9. Hythe 93
8 days later the Maximum Points Position as at Thursday 16th March (current points are shown in brackets) are shown below. The teams under the dotted line have since been eliminated from the automatic promotion race, but are in contention for play-off positions.
1. T & M 113 (92)
2. Dorking 107 (83)
3. Greenwich 99 (75)
4. Corinthian-Casuals 96 (72)
5. * South Park 94 (58)
------------------------------------------------
6. Hastings 91 (67)
7. Lewes 91 (67)
8. Carshalton 89 (68)
9. Hythe Town 88 (67)
* South Park still have 12 games to play before the end of the season, will they even make the play-offs?
With only 5 weeks left to the end of the league season, the Terrors only have to win 5 of their last 7 games, 4 at home and 3 away. There are some potential mine fields on the way, but concentration, belief and determination must prevail. Although it will not be possible for Tooting to beat the record 114 points achieved by Folkestone, the record 128 goals scored by Peacehaven when they got promoted is doable. With 7 games to go we have a total of 113 goals, at an average of2.89 goal per game. Keeping up this average would give the Terrors another 20 goals! "Deal or No Deal?
After flirting with relegation to the Combined Counties League, and 60 years Since we were elected to the Isthmian League , will the club be back where it started?
Key games this weekend are :-
Corinthian-Casuals V's Hastings United
Cray Wanderers V's South Park
Sittingbourne V's Dorking Wanderers
Whyteleafe V's Greenwich Borough
Keep Calm
And
Carry on the Great Form
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This is brilliant Mikem. Lets hope all goes well for the final push...
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Tom Jelley is still at Hampton & Richmond
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Ok.....just to give me something to do after the late, late, late shift - and to save Mike M's fingers, here's the maximum available points (with the current in brackets) after Saturday 18th March.....
T&M: 113 (95)
Dorking: 107 (86)
Greenwich: 97 (76)
Below line teams which maximum figure is below T&M current points:
___________________________________________________________________
Corinthian-Casuals: 93 (72)
Carshalton: 89 (71)
Hastings: 91 (70)
Hythe: 86 (68)
Lewes: 91 (70)
South Park: 94 (61)
So the target as was before, but now 12 points within six games (providing the goal difference advantage is intact).........another splendid result today for T&M.
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Plumpton wrote:
T&M: 113 (95)
Dorking: 107 (86)
Greenwich: 97 (76)
Below line teams which maximum figure is below T&M current points:
___________________________________________________________________
Corinthian-Casuals: 93 (72)
Carshalton: 89 (71)
Hastings: 91 (70)
Hythe: 86 (68)
Lewes: 91 (70)
South Park: 94 (61)
And at 21/03/2017, the same stuff except for South Park - now with a potential max of 91 (current 61).
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Two weeks now since I started this thread, with 3 favourites and 6 outsiders. The first weekend witnessed the fall of 4 clubs from the race, and last weekend another 2 clubs were eliminated. The three favourites are now approaching the last bend and a few fences to negotiate. The Terrors only need another 3 points to guarantee a minimum of a home draw in the play-offs . Points on the board at this time of the season are crucial. Possible points are as follows, with actual points in brackets.
Tooting 113 (95)
Dorking 107 (86)
Greenwich 97 (76)
The 3 teams in contention have some interesting games this weekend, Will there be any significant game changers from the following games:-
Dorking Wanderers V's Walton Casuals
Greenwich V 's Lewes
Horsham V's Tooting and Mitcham Utd.
Keep Calm
And
Carry on the Great Form
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Saturday's matches produced a significant game changer in the race for automatic promotion, with the Terrors defeat at Horsham after a record match winning run. With only 5 games remaining Tooting need at least 4 wins to guarantee the championship. Tooting will be severely tested in all 5 games as the Horsham match proved.
There are 2 vital games tomorrow evening when both Greenwich and Dorking play their game in hand over the Terrors:-
Dorking Wanderers V's South Park
Three Bridges V's Greenwich Borough
With the total points available, and currents points in shown in brackets, The only 3 championship contenders are as follows:-
Tooting and Mitcham Utd 110 (95)
Dorking 107 (89)
Greenwich 97 (79)
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Oo-er...real squeaky bum time.
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N n n n n n n n nervous !